LAKE TAHOE BASIN / TRUCKEE, Calif. — With March already halfway over and little to no new snowfall, the odds of a so-called “Miracle March” rescuing the Lake Tahoe region’s snow totals are growing slimmer — and concerns are rising that some ski resorts could close by the end of the month.
“March can see some of the biggest storms of the entire year,” said Bryan Allegretto, OpenSnow Forecaster. “On average, the west side of Lake Tahoe at around 7,000 feet receives just over six feet of snow during the month.”
But this year’s March has started far behind pace.
“This year we’ve seen zero feet so far, so we are a little behind that six-foot average going halfway into the month,” he said.
A “Miracle March” typically refers to a late-season surge of storms that pushes snowfall totals from well below average back to normal levels. While historically March has delivered dramatic turnarounds, Allegretto said the chances of that happening this year are fading quickly.
“Every time we’ve gone into March and started off bad, we’ve had about a 50/50 chance of it being a big month,” he said. “But this year the chances are diminishing and are very low at this point.”
This winter, however, had already delivered a few surprising rebounds.
A major storm series over the holidays pushed the region’s snowfall totals back to average early in the season. Another burst of storms arrived in February after weeks of dry weather. Those systems briefly returned the region to seasonal norms before conditions slipped again. After rain at the end of February, however, snowfall totals dropped sharply.
What does this mean for Tahoe’s Resorts?
Forecasters track potential storm patterns weeks in advance, looking for shifts in the global weather pattern that could bring stronger storms.
“Four weeks out, you look for signals in the global pattern,” Allegretto said. “Two weeks out you can start to see the shifting. A week out, you’re like, ‘All right, we’re getting storms now — let’s start to look at how big they could be.'”
Right now, those signals are weak.
The next possible shift could arrive late in the month, though the outlook remains modest. Allegretto said the last week of March could bring a change in the pattern that allows storms to return, but current forecasts suggest smaller systems.
Unfortunately, warmer temperatures could melt Tahoe / Truckee’s existing snowpack before those storms arrive.
“With temperatures hitting the 70s at lake level this week, we’re going to lose a lot of snow in the next 10 days before the pattern changes,” he said. “If we only get a few inches when it does snow, it’s just going to refresh what’s there and melt pretty quickly. We’re not going to rebuild the base.”
That could mean ski areas face a shortened season, particularly at lower elevations.
“I’m more worried about ski resorts closing early than about us getting a Miracle March,” Allegretto said.
Some areas are already feeling the effects. On March 12, Tahoe Cross Country Ski Area closed for the season due to lack of snow and warm temperatures. Homewood also announced their closing date will be March 22.
Unlike the dense snow created by snowmaking early in the season, much of the remaining base at many resorts this year is natural snow from the holiday and February storms, which tends to melt faster, Allegretto said.
Still, late-season surprises are always possible. In some years, storms detach from the jet stream and stall along the California coast, producing heavy snowfall in late March and early April.
“They kind of wander down the coast into California and sit there for a few days, and we can get massive amounts of snow,” Allegretto said. “Those storms are extremely hard to predict.”
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