With Prop 50, Tahoe/Truckee Is on the Frontlines of California’s Redistricting Battle
California Prop 50 puts Congressman Kevin Kiley, Tahoe/Truckee’s District 3 representative, under the spotlight. The proposition, also known as the Election Rigging Response Act, was passed by the state legislature in August as a way to offset potential Republican gains from Texas’ unprecedented mid-decade gerrymandering, carried out at the behest of President Trump. This November, California residents will have the opportunity to vote on Prop 50, which overrides the state’s independent redistricting commission to target five Republican seats, temporarily redrawing the districts to incorporate more Democratic areas.
If Prop 50 passes, it will impact Tahoe/Truckee, but views on whether this is a positive or negative tend to fall along party lines. Placer and Nevada county Democrats say Prop 50 is necessary to create an even playing field on the national level and counter Republicans’ attempts to keep the House of Representatives from going blue in the mid-term elections next year. Republicans in both counties, however, say this will disenfranchise rural voters, whose voices will be drowned out by the bigger population of Sacramento and its urban issues, as well as undermine the will of the people when they voted to create the independent redistricting commission. Rep. Kiley says he is opposed to mid-district gerrymandering not only in California, but across the country.
Currently, Congressional District 3 stretches north to Plumas County and south to Death Valley, incorporating most of the Eastern Sierra, as well as Nevada County and the Sacramento suburbs of Placer County, where the majority of District 3’s population lives. It is the second largest congressional district in California in terms of area, spanning 22,048 square miles.
The new District 3 removes a large portion of the red-leaning Eastern Sierra, replacing it instead with bigger sections of Sacramento County, which votes majority blue. The district would physically change from extending the eastern length of California to a tight cluster around Sacramento that would still include Tahoe/Truckee and Nevada County. Placer County, however, would be split and divvied up between districts 3, 4, and 6.
“My district would be blown into six different directions,” Kiley said at an online press conference on Sept. 18.
How we got here
The impetus for Prop 50 came in July, when President Trump called on Texas Gov. Greg Abbot and state Republicans to find five more red-leaning congressional districts to bolster the party’s odds of keeping control of the House in the 2026 mid-term elections. The Texas legislature obliged and approved the new maps in August. This was unusual because redistricting is traditionally done after the U.S. Census, which is mandated by the Constitution to take place every 10 years; the next census will be in 2030.
In response to Texas’ approval of mid-decade redistricting, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state legislature put forth Prop 50 as a countermeasure. The bipartisan California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRCC), which has been enshrined in the California Constitution since 2010, draws the boundaries of the state’s U.S. Congressional, state senate, state assembly, and board of equalization districts. Therefore, Prop 50 is a constitutional amendment that allows the state to use the new maps for the 2026 and 2030 elections only, essentially bypassing the CRCC for the next two elections. It must be approved by voters, by a simple majority, this November.
Democrats
Democratic groups in Placer and Nevada counties are supportive of Prop 50.
“They want to change the rules in the middle of the stream and traditions in the democratic process in their favor,” said Mike Rogers, chair of the Tahoe Truckee Democratic Club, which is part of the Nevada County Democratic Party. “This is not dissimilar to Trump calling the secretary of state in Georgia [in 2024] and saying that ‘I need 11,780 votes, find it for me’ … This is also obviously an attempt by Newsom to call attention to what I refer to as cheating — pure out and out cheating in elections, which Trump is known for. We have to fight that.”
Rogers believes that electing a Democrat to Congress for District 3 would be good for Tahoe/Truckee.
“It would mean that the issues that Democrats believe in and support will have a much stronger voice in Washington than we have ever had,” he said. “Even if Republicans win Congress again, at least we will have a strong voice on fire mitigation and housing.”
Rogers thinks Prop 50 has a decent chance of passing, and he predicts good turnout on both sides. While he believes changing District 3 will increase the odds of a Democrat winning, he doesn’t think it’s a certainty.
“The new District 3 will be a more winnable position for Democrats but it’s certainly not a slam dunk,” he said. “When Kiley runs against a Democrat, he will have an uphill battle, but he will have every opportunity to continue to represent District 3, but we will give him a hell of a fight.”
Two Democrats have declared their intent to run to represent District 3 in Congress – Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall and Tyler Vandenberg, a former marine corps officer who lives in South Lake Tahoe.
Since Congress is one of the few offices where representatives do not have to live in the district, Roseville-based Kiley is not beholden to run again in District 3 if Prop 50 passes. He could choose a different district, such as District 4 or 6.
The Tahoe/Truckee Democrats are campaigning for Prop 50 by knocking on doors and making phone calls.
“We need good PR to make people aware of what’s at stake,” Rogers said. “Democracy is not guaranteed. We cannot roll over and play dead … this is something to fight for.”
Nick Bennett, chair of the Placer County Democratic Central Committee, also believes that Prop 50 is worth fighting for.
“We believe it’s important to counter some of the things being done by the Trump administration and Texas redistricting,” he said. “It’s an attempt by [Trump] to hold on to power and keep Republicans in power in the House and prevent any accountability in Republican states like Texas, so they hold on to the House even if most people do not want him in power.”
Since Texas passed its new maps this summer, other states are following suit, leading to a possible redistricting war. The Missouri Senate approved gerrymandered maps in mid-September, which are expected to be signed into law by the Republican governor. Indiana and Florida have also discussed reworking their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, as well as Democratic states like Illinois, New York, and Maryland.
However, Sacramento-based political consultant Andrew Acosta says that districts across the country have been so gerrymandered over the years that it might not make a huge difference if more states jump into the redistricting war.
“Thirty years ago, there were many competitive seats around the U.S., but there are far fewer competitive seats in the purplish category because of redistricting and registration changes. It’s made a lot of seats safer,” he said. “They are on the edges of trying to carve a couple seats here or there, but you have to win them. There is no guarantee that any seat you carve is a slam dunk. It depends on the quality of the candidates.”
Republicans
Republican parties in Placer and Nevada counties are opposed to Prop 50. For one, they say this will reduce representation for citizens of both counties since rural concerns will be outvoted by Sacramento residents.
“If you put all the votes in the City of Sacramento, the Congressman is going to listen to where the money is, and the money is in Sacramento,” said Placer County Republican Party Chair Mark Wright. “We will lose our representation.”
He believes that rural issues like forest management and fixing roads won’t be heard by the representative of the new District 3.
“If it passes, I don’t think Placer County will become more blue, I just think Placer won’t have representation anymore,” Wright said. “We won’t have the ear of anyone to say what Placer County needs.”
The Nevada County Republicans agree.
“I believe a bipartisan issue is that the new District 3 really reduces the voices of rural communities in Nevada County as we bring in urban parts of Sacramento County like Rancho Cordova and Sac State, involving outside communities not aligned with issues in Nevada County,” said John “Mac” Young, chairman of the Nevada County Republican Party. “They are not dealing with the same issues like fire insurance and rural economic opportunities — these are not of great concern to urban areas.”
Young said his party is also opposed to Prop 50 because it invalidates part of the state constitution.
“It overturns the independent redistricting commission, and all the work put into place under the Schwarzenegger administration,” he said. “It was a good move to stop gerrymandering that was so rampant.”
To campaign against Prop 50, the Nevada County Republican Party opened its Grass Valley campaign office in mid-September, six months earlier than it normally would have for the 2026 midterms.
Kevin Kiley
Kiley, who is serving his second term as District 3 Representative, is opposed to Prop 50. On Aug. 5, he introduced a bill, H.R. 4889, to stop states from mid-decade redistricting. California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) introduced a similar bill in September.
“I do not support this mid-decade gerrymandering wherever it’s occurring, which is why I’ve introduced legislation to bring it entirely to a halt,” Kiley said during his Sept. 18 press conference. “I’ve called on the Speaker of the House to put together a bipartisan group to come up with something like the other provisions of this bill, which is to say, a way to get rid of gerrymandering in this country.”
This puts Kiley in a bit of a political predicament since he is going against the president and his own party. However, political consultant Jim Ross, who grew up in Incline Village and now lives in Oakland, thinks that Kiley introduced the bill as political cover to make himself appear more moderate in California.
“The bill has about as much chance as passing as I do becoming pope,” Ross said.
The Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, has not brought Kiley’s bill to the floor for a vote.
When Moonshine Ink asked Kiley directly how he can oppose Prop 50 when it is California’s response to the state of Texas following President Trump’s orders to redraw its maps for gerrymandering purposes, the Congressman said he is only focused on California.
“What we’re voting on with Prop 50 does not concern any other state. It concerns only California,” he said. “It’s California’s own elections that are going to be affected. So, whatever might be going on elsewhere, that’s no reason why we should harm ourselves. Our own citizens, our own voters, shouldn’t be punished because we don’t like what’s going on elsewhere. They shouldn’t be deprived of fair elections and fair representation. They shouldn’t have the will of the people overturned.”
Kiley added that he is against Texas’ redistricting.
In 2019 when Kiley was a member of the California State Assembly, a bill was introduced to give counties the option to create their own independent redistricting commissions for supervisorial districts. He missed the vote.
As the San Francisco Chronicle reported on Sept. 18, California Republicans have historically been opposed to independent redistricting commissions.
“In the last 16 years, Republicans have nearly unanimously opposed all 10 measures in the legislature to hand map-drawing power to independent commissions, while Democrats have overwhelmingly voted yes,” the Chronicle wrote in an article titled California Republicans Hated Independent Redistricting Commissions – until Prop 50.
Kiley said he also opposes Prop 50 because it will cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.
“We’re going to spend [nearly] $300 million on an unscheduled special election simply to gerrymander the state,” he said. “Literally, that’s the only purpose of the election is to return us to the era of gerrymandering at a cost of $282 million.”
Prop 50 Outlook
Both Acosta and Ross, the two political consultants Moonshine Ink spoke with, predict that while it will be close, Prop 50 will pass.
Ross cited a Sept. 19 Emerson College poll, which found that 51% of voters plan to vote yes on Prop 50, 34% no, and 15% undecided.
“I have not seen any polling, public or private, that shows Prop 50 losing at this point,” Ross said.
“I have seen polling showing it’s close, in the low 50s, which means they [Yes on 50 campaign] still have a campaign to run.”
Ross said that Prop 50 will create five more competitive seats in California, but it is not guaranteed that Democrats will win all five of them.
“It’s going to move a few points, it’s all going to still be competitive,” he said. “Democrats still have to run really strong campaigns.”
Nevertheless, Ross believes that Kiley will have a difficult time getting reelected in a new District 3 and that a moderate Democrat could win.
“[The new map] is basically creating a moderate, centrist district, and Kiley has a right-wing record in Congress,” he said. “But winning Prop 50 is not enough. It is step one in the fight — the fight before the real fight which happens next year.”
