INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. — In a town where the first question of the morning is often “How much did it snow?”, this winter’s forecast is the talk of the lake. With NOAA forecasters tracking a strengthening El Niño that could rank among the strongest on record, Travel North Tahoe Nevada is bringing in an expert to cut through the noise.

Dawn Johnson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno, will present “Talkin’ Tahoe: Winter Weather Predictions” on Wednesday, Nov. 18, at the Duffield Theater at Incline High School, 499 Village Blvd., Incline Village. Doors open at 5:30 p.m., and the program runs from 6 to 7:30 p.m. Admission is free; reservations are requested at TravelNorthTahoeNevada.com.

For North Lake Tahoe, the stakes are high. Strong El Niño winters can bring an active storm track and big Sierra snowfall, but they can also deliver warm atmospheric rivers with high snow levels and rain at lake level. Recent history shows how much uncertainty there is: the 2015–16 “super El Niño” produced a roughly average winter around Tahoe. For residents, skiers, businesses and visitors, the difference between a snow year and a rain year shapes everything from ski days to roof loads to road travel.

Johnson will discuss what El Niño could mean for the Tahoe Basin, the upcoming winter outlook, where to find trusted weather information, the limits of seasonal forecasting, and the timelines forecasters use to make decisions. She will also explain the National Weather Service’s watch and warning process and share preparation strategies and safety measures for the winter ahead. A question-and-answer session will follow.

“A strong El Niño tilts the odds, but it doesn’t write the whole story for Tahoe. Our goal is to help people understand what the forecast can tell them, what it can’t, and how to be ready when a storm is on the way,” said Johnson.

Johnson has worked for the National Weather Service since 2004 and at the Reno forecast office since 2009. As Warning Coordination Meteorologist, she is the office’s link to emergency managers, tribal partners, the media and the public across roughly 36,000 square miles of western Nevada, northeastern California and the Sierra Nevada, with a focus on turning forecasts into clear, actionable messages.

The National Weather Service, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provides the weather forecasts, watches and warnings that protect lives and property. Its Reno office covers the Lake Tahoe region around the clock.

“Weather is the heartbeat of life in North Lake Tahoe, and this winter has everyone talking,” said Andy Chapman, President and CEO, Travel North Tahoe Nevada. “Talkin’ Tahoe is about connecting our community with the experts, and there’s no better source than the National Weather Service.”