TAHOE BASIN, Calif. – A strong El Niño could bring above-average snowfall to the Tahoe region this winter, according to OpenSnow’s 2026-27 winter forecast.
Meteorologist Alan Smith said the developing “super El Niño” played a significant role in shaping Open Snow’s winter forecast, which draws on historical strong El Niño winters, oceanic and atmospheric conditions and seasonal climate models.
For California and Nevada, OpenSnow is forecasting above-normal snowfall, with January through March favored as the strongest part of the season. Northern areas of California, including the Tahoe region, are also expected to see above-normal temperatures.
While the forecast calls for a warmer-than-average winter in the Tahoe region, Smith cautioned that the outlook does not necessarily mean temperatures will reach the exceptional levels seen last winter.
“Last winter was exceptionally warm – the warmest on record for a large portion of the West,” Smith wrote. “It’s unlikely it will be that warm again this winter even if this above-average outlook verifies.”
El Niño could bring a wetter winter
OpenSnow is forecasting above-normal precipitation across much of the West Coast, including California and Nevada. Strong El Niño winters can bring warmer atmospheric rivers and higher snow levels to the Sierra, meaning some storms could produce rain at elevations that would typically receive snow.
“While major snow events can occur, warm atmospheric rivers that bring rain and high snow levels to the mountains can also occur,” Smith wrote.
A slower start
OpenSnow’s historical analogs point to a potentially slower start to the season, with December favored to be less active before conditions become more favorable for snow in the new year.
The strongest signal for above-average snowfall comes between January and March.
Across California’s ski regions, the signal for above-average snowfall is strongest in the Central Sierra, including Mammoth and China Peak, according to OpenSnow. Tahoe is also included in the broader area favored for above-average snowfall.
The forecast also notes that the 2015-16 El Niño winter, the most recent super El Niño, did not deliver the exceptionally wet and snowy conditions some forecasts had anticipated in the Tahoe region. Snowfall around Tahoe that year was near average.
Still, Smith said that winter represents only one historical example. When combined with other El Niño analog years and seasonal model data, OpenSnow found a strong enough signal to favor above-average precipitation and snowfall this season.
OpenSnow emphasized that seasonal forecasts are inherently uncertain because many atmospheric conditions cannot be predicted months in advance.
OpenSnow’s forecast covers more than 15 states across the United States and 10 countries around the globe
